LOCKDOWN 3.0 : A REALITY CHECK
"Is Lockdown helping INDIA?"
By- Pratyush Kumar Shekhar Email-shekharofficial311@gmail.com
What was the reason for a long lockdown period?
The World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID19 a pandemic on March 11 but until March 13,India’s officials position was that it “wasn’t a health emergency and there was no need to panic”. India, with 81 cases, was evacuating Indians from abroad and had restricted international entry through only 19 of its 37 land immigration check posts. By March 15, it was evident to health experts and epidemiologists that the virus, SARSCoV2, has properties that distinguishes itself from
other corona virus and even INFLUENZA viruses. It is highly transmittable and can evade the immune system for longer and therefore spreads quickly even without the infected being visibly sick. The virus is able to penetrate deeper into the lower airways. Therefore, to the elderly and the aged, those with preexisting conditions such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease, it poses a
heightened risk of acute pneumonia.
On March 24, Mr. Modi said: “I fold my hands to say please stay where you are,” adding that “all leading experts say 21 days is the minimum we require to break the corona virus transmission cycle. If we are not able to handle these 21 days, the country and your family will go back 21 years and many families will be destroyed. I am saying this not as the Prime Minister but as your family
member.” The night of his address, India recorded 564 cases — a sixfold jump in less than two weeks; there were 11 deaths. Government and health officials feel that a complete lockdown and cessation of travel will keep those who are infected isolated and restrict infections to
contained clusters. This would avoid community transmission when it becomes impossible to trace the source of infections and quarantining is of no use. Such a situation would quickly overwhelm hospitals as seen in Italy, Spain, Iran and the United States. With among the lowest per capita availability of hospital beds and health care workers, health experts say if there are too many
cases, it will be catastrophic for India.
What do the numbers reveal?
The lockdown has coincided with an increase in testing and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has widened the pool of people of suspected cases who need to get tested. Earlier, only those with a travel history and displaying symptoms were being tested. Now, even those who show flu-like
illnesses and are in a hotspot are likely to be tested and quarantined. Since the lockdown, cases have risen to over 33,000; deaths too have risen 40 times. Every weekly rise in cases has seen an increase by a factor of 3.7, 2.5 and 2.0, respectively, until April 16. Testing grew in those same weeks by a factor of 2.4, 2.1 and 1.1 times, respectively. A slower growth in testing thus appears to be corresponding to a slower rise in confirmed cases.
What do the numbers reveal?
The lockdown has coincided with an increase in testing and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has widened the pool of people of suspected cases who need to get tested. Earlier, only those with a travel history and displaying symptoms were being tested. Now, even those who show flu-like
illnesses and are in a hotspot are likely to be tested and quarantined. Since the lockdown, cases have risen to over 33,000; deaths too have risen 40 times. Every weekly rise in cases has seen an increase by a factor of 3.7, 2.5 and 2.0, respectively, until April 16. Testing grew in those same weeks by a factor of 2.4, 2.1 and 1.1 times, respectively. A slower growth in testing thus appears to be corresponding to a slower rise in confirmed cases.
Should India test more aggressively?
Increased testing does not necessarily mean a rise in cases, and could be explained by a fall in the speed of disease transmission. However, to conclude so would be premature, caution health officials. That is because India has still tested only a limited proportion of its population. There is a pool, and we do not know how large, of asymptomatic people, that is those who have been infected but do not show symptoms, but can infect others. Testing must be increased and contacts traced so that asymptomatic are also under the radar. Only this week India has efficiently unveiled a new set of strategies— the use of rapid antibody tests and the concept of pooled testing to estimate the extent of undetected infections in hotspots which are places with a large number or large increase in cases. These are useful but relatively crude measures and can still lead to several asymptomatic people going undetected, according to health officials.
Is the lockdown being followed?
While India’s lockdown has been among the harshest in the world, there have been several instances of people gathering in large numbers. In fact, the makeshift relief camps that States have set up for migrant labour, the high average density of population are all aggravating factors for the spread of clusters as is seen in Mumbai. Finally, India’s high dependence on imported testing kits and the chemicals needed to analyse them means that testing cannot be equally ramped up across the country. The ICMR has said that it has enough testing kits “for the next eight weeks” but this does not account for the variable testing capacity of various States. The extension of the lockdown for another three weeks, until May 3, may buy time but the government needs to clarify its goals. Does it expect the number of hotspot districts of which there are 170 as of this week to come down? Is it to bring down the number of infections by a particular percentage or is it to achieve a more manageable doubling time? This refers to the time it takes for cases to double, which has increased from four days in the lastweek of March to seven days as of this week. The longer this stretch is, the more time hospitals will have to treat and release COVID19 patients, refurbish and safely dedicate manpower for clinical management.
What NEXT???
College sessions will begin in August for current students and September for new ones, the University Grants Commission said on Wednesday. The admission process in universities will also begin from August. Schools and colleges have been closed across the country since last month amid the coronavirus pandemic."Intermediate students will be graded based on internal assessment of the present and previous semester. In states where the COVID-19 situation has normalised, there will be exams in the month of July. For terminal semester students, exams will be held in July," the UGC said.
The government has already allowed industrial activities in rural areas with conditions. Similarly, apart from the shops for the essential commodities, standalone business establishments of non-essential goods were also allowed to open during the lockdown. Movement of essential and non-essential cargos are also allowed through trucks and trains.On Wednesday, the home ministry allowed movement of migrant workers, students, tourists and other people with certain conditions.
Please do comment your views that will the lockdown will be extended or not in the comment section.
Comments
Post a Comment